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The epidemiological situation with tuberculosis in Russia: an apparent well-being and hidden threats

Written by Gerasimov A.N., Mikheeva I.V.

  UDK: 616.2–002.5–036.22(470+571) | Pages: 75–78 | Full text PDF | Open PDF 

Annotation:

Objective. Although the incidence of tuberculosis in Russia has been steadily declining since 2006 (but still about twice as high as in the 1980s), there are factors of concern. Among them – an unfavorable change in the structure of the diseased. According to data for 2016, about a quarter of new cases of tuberculosis are caused by a pathogen with multiple drug resistance, and about a quarter of new cases of tuberculosis have been detected in HIV-infected people.
Methods. For the statistical analysis of morbidity, the data of form No. 2, data on the proportion of children aged 14 years, seronegative for tuberculosis, as well as data on morbidity, given in the report of V.А. Aksenova (the main pediatric phthisiatrist of the Ministry of Health of Russia) 06.16.2017 in Novosibirsk.
Results. From 2006 to 2016 the incidence of tuberculosis in both children and adults in Russia has declined annually. However, over the same years, the proportion of children who need revaccination decreased. The use of methods of mathematical modeling suggests that the activity of spreading the causative agent of tuberculosis over these years has increased approximately twofold. At the same time, about four times the number of children who were referred to the surveillance group IIIA (spontaneous cure) increased. Conclusion. The observed reduction in the incidence of tuberculosis in the Russian Federation is a consequence of the failure to improve the epidemiological situation, but changes in the criteria for diagnosing and the activity of detecting the disease.

Links to authors:

A.N. Gerasimov1, I.V. Mikheeva2
1 First Moscow State Medical University named after I.M. Sechenov (8/2 Trubetskaya St. Moscow 119991 Russian Federation),
2 Central Research Institute of Epidemiology (3a Novogireevskaya St. Moscow 111123 Russian Federation)


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