Development of method for mathematical prediction in choice of method of single-stage reconstructive blepharoplasty for cicatricial eyelid defects

Written by Banschikov P.A.

  UDK: 617.77–003.92–089.844:51–047.72 | DOI: 10.17238/PmJ1609-1175.2019.2.77–80 | Pages: 77–80 | Full text PDF | Open PDF 


Objective: to develop a method for mathematical prediction of the most effective single-stage reconstructive blepharoplasty.
Methods: 80 patients (80 eyes) were operated on for extensive cicatricial defects of the eyelids with the implementation of plastic twolayer (1st group, 40 people) and three-layer (2nd group, 40 people) grafts. Logistic regression and analysis of ROC-curves were used to identify prognostic parameters that affect the outcome of autograft engraftment. Prognostic criteria: age of patients, area of lost eyelid tissues, average index and microcirculation efficiency index.
Results: The prognostic significance of only the microcirculation index in the tissues of the damaged eyelid was revealed. If its value is less than 3.5 perfusion units, a complicated type of postoperative scarring is predicted for both types of surgical reconstruction - one-stage plastic reconstruction of cicatricial eyelid defects can be considered ineffective. If the patient has a microcirculation index in the damaged eyelid, it ranges from 3.5 to 7 perf. units, predicted uncomplicated scarring after using a three-layer transplant. When the indicator is 7 perf. units and more, uncomplicated scarring is predicted for both types of single-stage blepharoplasty.
Conclusions: High prognostic efficiency confirms the expediency of applying the developed mathematical model when choosing the optimal method of one-stage composite plastics in patients with cicatricial eyelid defects.

Links to authors:

P.A. Banschikov
Khabarovsk branch of S.N. Fyodorov NMRC “MNTK “Eye Microsurgery” (211 Tikhookeanskaya St. Khabarovsk 680033 Russian Federation)

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